How to Analyze a Rental Property Deal in 10 Minutes

Shopfolio

Most rental property "analysis" consists of plugging rent and a mortgage payment into a notes app and hoping the first number is bigger. That works until it doesn't — and by then you've closed on a property that bleeds cash.

Here are the five metrics that separate profitable deals from money pits. I use all five on every deal I evaluate. Each one takes about two minutes if you have the numbers in front of you.

Step 1: Calculate Net Operating Income (NOI)

Everything starts here. NOI is your rental income minus all operating expenses — before debt service. It tells you what the property actually earns.

NOI

NOI = Gross Rental Income - Vacancy - Operating Expenses

Operating expenses include: property taxes, insurance, maintenance, property management, utilities (if landlord-paid), and reserves for capital expenditures. Do NOT include mortgage payments here — that comes later.

Example: A duplex rents for $2,400/month ($28,800/year). You estimate 5% vacancy ($1,440) and $10,800 in annual operating expenses. NOI = $28,800 - $1,440 - $10,800 = $16,560.

The most common mistake is underestimating expenses. Budget at least 5% of gross rent for maintenance reserves and 8-10% for property management even if you self-manage — because someday you won't.

Step 2: Cap Rate — What Does the Property Yield?

Cap Rate

Cap Rate = NOI / Purchase Price

Tells you the property's yield independent of financing. Useful for comparing properties and markets. 5-8% is typical for residential. Below 4% in most markets means you're overpaying.

Example: That duplex is listed at $240,000. Cap rate = $16,560 / $240,000 = 6.9%. Reasonable for a Midwest duplex.

Cap rate does not account for financing, so it's not your return — it's the property's return. Two investors buying the same property with different loan terms will have different returns, but the cap rate stays the same.

Step 3: DSCR — Can It Service the Debt?

DSCR (Debt Service Coverage Ratio)

DSCR = NOI / Annual Debt Service

Lenders want 1.20 or higher. Below 1.10 is a red flag. Below 1.0 means the property cannot cover its own mortgage — you are paying out of pocket every month.

Example: You're financing with a $192,000 loan (80% LTV) at 7.25%, 30-year fixed. Monthly P&I is $1,310, so annual debt service is $15,720. DSCR = $16,560 / $15,720 = 1.05.

That DSCR is below the 1.10 red-flag threshold. The deal is tight. A single month of unexpected vacancy or one major repair wipes out your cushion. Most DSCR lenders would decline this loan, and that should tell you something.

Step 4: Cash-on-Cash Return — What's Your Actual Return?

Cash-on-Cash Return

Cash-on-Cash = Annual Pre-Tax Cash Flow / Total Cash Invested

The return on the actual dollars you put in. 8%+ is strong. Below 5% and you might as well buy an index fund with zero landlord headaches.

Example: Annual cash flow after debt service = $16,560 - $15,720 = $840. Your total cash invested = $48,000 down payment + $6,000 closing costs = $54,000. Cash-on-cash = $840 / $54,000 = 1.6%.

1.6% is terrible. A high-yield savings account pays more with zero effort. This deal only works if you're betting on appreciation — and "betting on appreciation" is another way of saying "speculating, not investing."

Step 5: IRR — The Full Picture

IRR (Internal Rate of Return)

IRR = Time-weighted total return (cash flow + appreciation + principal paydown)

Captures everything over your hold period: rental income, property appreciation, and the equity your tenants build by paying down the mortgage. 12-15% is a solid target.

IRR is harder to calculate by hand because it requires a multi-year cash flow projection. This is where a spreadsheet earns its keep. You input your assumptions about rent growth (2-3%/year is conservative), appreciation (match local historical), and your exit timeline, and the IRR formula does the rest.

For our example duplex, assuming 2% annual rent growth, 3% appreciation, and a 5-year hold, the IRR might land around 8-10%. Better than the cash-on-cash alone suggests, but still not compelling for the risk.

The Walk-Away Thresholds

Walk away if: DSCR < 1.10, Cash-on-Cash < 4%, or Debt Yield < 7%. No amount of optimism changes the math. If you have to assume above-market rent growth to make the numbers work, the deal doesn't work.

The duplex example above fails on DSCR and Cash-on-Cash. It's a pass. The right response is not to "make it work" by assuming higher rents or lower vacancy — it's to move on to the next deal.

Do This in 10 Minutes, Not 2 Hours

Running these five metrics by hand — pulling up amortization schedules, calculating NOI line by line, building an IRR model — takes most people 1-2 hours. With a purpose-built spreadsheet, it takes 10 minutes. Fill in the blue cells, read the verdict.

The Deal Analyzer does all five calculations.

NOI, Cap Rate, DSCR, Cash-on-Cash, IRR, sensitivity tables, Lender Solver, and a GO/NO-GO verdict. $29, one-time purchase. Excel + Google Sheets.

See the Deal Analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a good cash-on-cash return for a rental property?

Most experienced investors target 8–12% cash-on-cash return on a leveraged rental property purchase. Below 6% is generally considered thin given the illiquidity of real estate. Above 15% in a normal market often signals either an exceptional deal or an underestimated expense — vacancy, deferred maintenance, or capital expenditures. The right threshold depends on your opportunity cost: what else could you do with that down payment capital?

What is the difference between cap rate and cash-on-cash return?

Cap rate ignores financing — it measures property-level yield as NOI divided by purchase price. Cash-on-cash return measures your personal equity yield — it divides annual pre-tax cash flow after debt service by the total cash you invested (down payment plus closing costs). The same property can show a 6% cap rate and a 10% cash-on-cash return if the debt is structured favorably, or a 6% cap rate and a 3% return if rates are high and the deal is thin.

What DSCR is required for most rental property loans?

Conventional lenders typically require 1.25x DSCR minimum. DSCR loan programs — which underwrite the property's rental income rather than the borrower's personal income — commonly set a 1.10–1.20x floor. A 1.0x DSCR means cash flow exactly covers debt service with no cushion. Most experienced investors decline deals below 1.20x, knowing that one month of vacancy or a major repair will create a shortfall.

What is IRR and do I really need it to analyze a rental property?

Internal Rate of Return (IRR) is the annualized return that accounts for the timing and magnitude of every cash flow — your down payment going in, annual distributions, and the eventual sale proceeds. You do not need it for a quick buy/pass decision on a single deal. You do need it when comparing two deals with different hold periods, appreciation assumptions, or exit prices. A five-year IRR of 14% is meaningfully different from a ten-year IRR of 14% — the same percentage, but one returned capital faster.

Related Reading

More RE investor tools

Get the full RE Investor Toolkit: Deal Analyzer + BRRRR Calculator + Rental Tracker for $59 (save 32%).

BRRRR Calculator Rental Tracker